Soto prediction

[ernie*]

I hope I'm wrong but I see Soto signing with another team other than the
Mets, who will then release a statement "We thought we made the best
offer". Happens with every major FA. Again, hope I'm wrong.

[tmp6986]

Post by ernie*
I hope I'm wrong but I see Soto signing with another team other than the
Mets, who will then release a statement "We thought we made the best
offer". Happens with every major FA. Again, hope I'm wrong.

To me it seems most likely that he'll stay with the Yankees. But yeah, I
wouldn't mind being surprised either.

When the offers are as big as these are going to be, it really comes
down to where the player wants to be.

[Popping Mad]

Post by ernie*
I hope I'm wrong but I see Soto signing with another team other than the
Mets,

I don't know where he will sign but at his age I would make the
strongest possible bid for him.

[Popping Mad]

Post by Popping Mad

Post by ernie*
I hope I'm wrong but I see Soto signing with another team other than the
Mets,

I don't know where he will sign but at his age I would make the
strongest possible bid for him.

Mets Among Roughly 11 Teams To Reach Out To Soto

By Anthony Franco | October 31, 2024 at 10:31pm CDT

Day One of the offseason means the Juan Soto pursuits are underway.
Until Monday, only the Yankees are allowed to discuss salary figures.
However, other teams can touch base with his camp to broadly express
interest and pitch their organizations now that the World Series is
finished.

The top free agent has gotten no shortage of attention. Jon Heyman of
the New York Post writes that 11 teams were in contact with Soto’s camp
by Thursday morning. The Post’s Mike Puma relays that the Mets — widely
perceived as the top challenger to the incumbent Yankees — were among them.

Soto getting attention from more than a third of the league isn’t
surprising. There isn’t a single front office that wouldn’t love to add
him. The number of legitimately plausible suitors is much smaller.
Soto’s contract demands figure to be prohibitive for all but a handful
of teams, though Heyman writes that two unidentified small-market
franchises were among the initial eleven. Still, it’s hard to envision
Soto landing with a team that isn’t a traditional behemoth.

To that end, Heyman floats the possibility of Soto’s camp looking to top
$700MM without any deferred money. While Shohei Ohtani hit that mark
before adjusting for the deferrals, the deal’s net present value was
well south of $500MM. MLB calculates the Ohtani deal just shy of $461MM
for luxury tax purposes, while the Players Association puts it around
$438MM. Either number still represents an all-time record. The Ohtani
contract is the only one in MLB history to top $400MM.

There’s not much doubt that Soto is going to beat both versions of the
NPV of the Ohtani deal. Doing so on a contract with a present value of
$700MM is a massive ask. It’d require breaking the guarantee record by
upwards of $240MM. Getting there would require at least $50MM annually
over a 14-year term. Ohtani’s deferral-adjusted $46.06MM average annual
value is the only AAV north of $44MM.

No free agent has signed for 14 years. Fernando Tatis Jr. is the only
player to sign a 14-year contract, though his $340MM deal was an
extension signed before his age-22 season. Bryce Harper got to 13 years
as a free agent going into his age-26 season, as Soto is now. Harper
took a relatively diminished $25.38MM annual salary, and while Soto is
certainly going to beat that, shattering the AAV record and signing the
longest free agent contract of all time would be an ambitious ask.

Of course, Soto is going to start free agency with extremely high
expectations. The process seems likely to carry well into the offseason,
perhaps beyond December’s Winter Meetings. Every high-payroll franchise
figures to be linked to Soto in some capacity. The general expectation
is that there’ll be a huge bidding war between Yankees owner Hal
Steinbrenner and Mets owner Steve Cohen, in particular. Mets president
of baseball operations David Stearns has already stated that the
organization has the payroll flexibility to consider a run at “pretty
much the entirety of the player universe.”

Puma notes that while the Mets may shy away from signing players who
require draft compensation, they’re unsurprisingly willing to make an
exception in Soto’s case. He’ll decline a qualifying offer, so the Mets
would forfeit their second- and fifth-highest draft choices and $1MM in
international bonus pool space to sign him.

That’s a non-issue for a player of Soto’s caliber. If the Mets are
reluctant to surrender draft compensation, that could be a factor for
their other free agent pursuits. They’ll be heavily involved on free
agent pitchers. Corbin Burnes and Max Fried will get QOs, but Blake
Snell and Jack Flaherty are ineligible. Borderline QO candidates include
Michael Wacha, Nick Martinez and Nick Pivetta. As with Soto, they could
consider Burnes and Fried to be exceptional free agents for whom they’re
willing to take a hit to their farm system. That’ll be a subplot in what
should be a fascinating offseason in the Big Apple.

[hassMR]

Post by Popping Mad

Post by Popping Mad

Post by ernie*
I hope I'm wrong but I see Soto signing with another team other than the
Mets,

I don't know where he will sign but at his age I would make the
strongest possible bid for him.

Mets Among Roughly 11 Teams To Reach Out To Soto
By Anthony Franco | October 31, 2024 at 10:31pm CDT
Day One of the offseason means the Juan Soto pursuits are underway.
Until Monday, only the Yankees are allowed to discuss salary figures.
However, other teams can touch base with his camp to broadly express
interest and pitch their organizations now that the World Series is
finished.
The top free agent has gotten no shortage of attention. Jon Heyman of
the New York Post writes that 11 teams were in contact with Soto’s camp
by Thursday morning. The Post’s Mike Puma relays that the Mets — widely
perceived as the top challenger to the incumbent Yankees — were among them.
Soto getting attention from more than a third of the league isn’t
surprising. There isn’t a single front office that wouldn’t love to add
him. The number of legitimately plausible suitors is much smaller.
Soto’s contract demands figure to be prohibitive for all but a handful
of teams, though Heyman writes that two unidentified small-market
franchises were among the initial eleven. Still, it’s hard to envision
Soto landing with a team that isn’t a traditional behemoth.
To that end, Heyman floats the possibility of Soto’s camp looking to top
$700MM without any deferred money. While Shohei Ohtani hit that mark
before adjusting for the deferrals, the deal’s net present value was
well south of $500MM. MLB calculates the Ohtani deal just shy of $461MM
for luxury tax purposes, while the Players Association puts it around
$438MM. Either number still represents an all-time record. The Ohtani
contract is the only one in MLB history to top $400MM.
There’s not much doubt that Soto is going to beat both versions of the
NPV of the Ohtani deal. Doing so on a contract with a present value of
$700MM is a massive ask. It’d require breaking the guarantee record by
upwards of $240MM. Getting there would require at least $50MM annually
over a 14-year term. Ohtani’s deferral-adjusted $46.06MM average annual
value is the only AAV north of $44MM.
No free agent has signed for 14 years. Fernando Tatis Jr. is the only
player to sign a 14-year contract, though his $340MM deal was an
extension signed before his age-22 season. Bryce Harper got to 13 years
as a free agent going into his age-26 season, as Soto is now. Harper
took a relatively diminished $25.38MM annual salary, and while Soto is
certainly going to beat that, shattering the AAV record and signing the
longest free agent contract of all time would be an ambitious ask.
Of course, Soto is going to start free agency with extremely high
expectations. The process seems likely to carry well into the offseason,
perhaps beyond December’s Winter Meetings. Every high-payroll franchise
figures to be linked to Soto in some capacity. The general expectation
is that there’ll be a huge bidding war between Yankees owner Hal
Steinbrenner and Mets owner Steve Cohen, in particular. Mets president
of baseball operations David Stearns has already stated that the
organization has the payroll flexibility to consider a run at “pretty
much the entirety of the player universe.”
Puma notes that while the Mets may shy away from signing players who
require draft compensation, they’re unsurprisingly willing to make an
exception in Soto’s case. He’ll decline a qualifying offer, so the Mets
would forfeit their second- and fifth-highest draft choices and $1MM in
international bonus pool space to sign him.
That’s a non-issue for a player of Soto’s caliber. If the Mets are
reluctant to surrender draft compensation, that could be a factor for
their other free agent pursuits. They’ll be heavily involved on free
agent pitchers. Corbin Burnes and Max Fried will get QOs, but Blake
Snell and Jack Flaherty are ineligible. Borderline QO candidates include
Michael Wacha, Nick Martinez and Nick Pivetta. As with Soto, they could
consider Burnes and Fried to be exceptional free agents for whom they’re
willing to take a hit to their farm system. That’ll be a subplot in what
should be a fascinating offseason in the Big Apple.

Welp, we got him!

[ernie*]

Post by hassMR

Post by Popping Mad

Post by Popping Mad

Post by ernie*
I hope I'm wrong but I see Soto signing with another team other than the
Mets,

I don't know where he will sign but at his age I would make the
strongest possible bid for him.

Mets Among Roughly 11 Teams To Reach Out To Soto
By Anthony Franco | October 31, 2024 at 10:31pm CDT
Day One of the offseason means the Juan Soto pursuits are underway.
Until Monday, only the Yankees are allowed to discuss salary figures.
However, other teams can touch base with his camp to broadly express
interest and pitch their organizations now that the World Series is
finished.
The top free agent has gotten no shortage of attention. Jon Heyman of
the New York Post writes that 11 teams were in contact with Soto’s camp
by Thursday morning. The Post’s Mike Puma relays that the Mets — widely
perceived as the top challenger to the incumbent Yankees — were among them.
Soto getting attention from more than a third of the league isn’t
surprising. There isn’t a single front office that wouldn’t love to add
him. The number of legitimately plausible suitors is much smaller.
Soto’s contract demands figure to be prohibitive for all but a handful
of teams, though Heyman writes that two unidentified small-market
franchises were among the initial eleven. Still, it’s hard to envision
Soto landing with a team that isn’t a traditional behemoth.
To that end, Heyman floats the possibility of Soto’s camp looking to top
$700MM without any deferred money. While Shohei Ohtani hit that mark
before adjusting for the deferrals, the deal’s net present value was
well south of $500MM. MLB calculates the Ohtani deal just shy of $461MM
for luxury tax purposes, while the Players Association puts it around
$438MM. Either number still represents an all-time record. The Ohtani
contract is the only one in MLB history to top $400MM.
There’s not much doubt that Soto is going to beat both versions of the
NPV of the Ohtani deal. Doing so on a contract with a present value of
$700MM is a massive ask. It’d require breaking the guarantee record by
upwards of $240MM. Getting there would require at least $50MM annually
over a 14-year term. Ohtani’s deferral-adjusted $46.06MM average annual
value is the only AAV north of $44MM.
No free agent has signed for 14 years. Fernando Tatis Jr. is the only
player to sign a 14-year contract, though his $340MM deal was an
extension signed before his age-22 season. Bryce Harper got to 13 years
as a free agent going into his age-26 season, as Soto is now. Harper
took a relatively diminished $25.38MM annual salary, and while Soto is
certainly going to beat that, shattering the AAV record and signing the
longest free agent contract of all time would be an ambitious ask.
Of course, Soto is going to start free agency with extremely high
expectations. The process seems likely to carry well into the offseason,
perhaps beyond December’s Winter Meetings. Every high-payroll franchise
figures to be linked to Soto in some capacity. The general expectation
is that there’ll be a huge bidding war between Yankees owner Hal
Steinbrenner and Mets owner Steve Cohen, in particular. Mets president
of baseball operations David Stearns has already stated that the
organization has the payroll flexibility to consider a run at “pretty
much the entirety of the player universe.”
Puma notes that while the Mets may shy away from signing players who
require draft compensation, they’re unsurprisingly willing to make an
exception in Soto’s case. He’ll decline a qualifying offer, so the Mets
would forfeit their second- and fifth-highest draft choices and $1MM in
international bonus pool space to sign him.
That’s a non-issue for a player of Soto’s caliber. If the Mets are
reluctant to surrender draft compensation, that could be a factor for
their other free agent pursuits. They’ll be heavily involved on free
agent pitchers. Corbin Burnes and Max Fried will get QOs, but Blake
Snell and Jack Flaherty are ineligible. Borderline QO candidates include
Michael Wacha, Nick Martinez and Nick Pivetta. As with Soto, they could
consider Burnes and Fried to be exceptional free agents for whom they’re
willing to take a hit to their farm system. That’ll be a subplot in what
should be a fascinating offseason in the Big Apple.

Welp, we got him!

Glad I was wrong about Soto but if the Mets don't resign Alonso, all
they've done is replace one home run hitter for another.

[Popping Mad]

Post by ernie*
Glad I was wrong about Soto but if the Mets don't resign Alonso, all
they've done is replace one home run hitter for another.

No there is no comparison. Soto is a 400 OBP hitter

[Popping Mad]

Post by Popping Mad

Post by ernie*
Glad I was wrong about Soto but if the Mets don't resign Alonso, all
they've done is replace one home run hitter for another.

No there is no comparison. Soto is a 400 OBP hitter

trade rumors:

It’s not quite as basic as saying Soto’s contract itself will be taxed
at 110% (that’d be a $56.1MM annual hit), but he’ll naturally thrust the
Mets into the Cohen Tax threshold on a near annual basis, assuming the
Mets surround him with other high-end players. They’re already paying
Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo annual salaries of $34.1MM and
$20.5MM, respectively, through at least 2030. RosterResouce projects
that the Mets’ luxury obligations now sit just north of $251MM.


my concern is ticket prices

[ernie*]

Post by Popping Mad

Post by Popping Mad

Post by ernie*
Glad I was wrong about Soto but if the Mets don't resign Alonso, all
they've done is replace one home run hitter for another.

No there is no comparison. Soto is a 400 OBP hitter

It’s not quite as basic as saying Soto’s contract itself will be taxed
at 110% (that’d be a $56.1MM annual hit), but he’ll naturally thrust the
Mets into the Cohen Tax threshold on a near annual basis, assuming the
Mets surround him with other high-end players. They’re already paying
Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo annual salaries of $34.1MM and
$20.5MM, respectively, through at least 2030. RosterResouce projects
that the Mets’ luxury obligations now sit just north of $251MM.
my concern is ticket prices

$200 to sit in the upper deck near the foul pole

[Popping Mad]

Post by ernie*

Post by Popping Mad
my concern is ticket prices

$200 to sit in the upper deck near the foul pole

Yeah then the deal isn't worth it. So lets hope you are wrong

[ernie*]

Post by Popping Mad

Post by ernie*

Post by Popping Mad
my concern is ticket prices

$200 to sit in the upper deck near the foul pole

Yeah then the deal isn't worth it. So lets hope you are wrong

I usually am wrong, so there's hope.

[ernie*]

Post by Popping Mad

Post by ernie*
Glad I was wrong about Soto but if the Mets don't resign Alonso, all
they've done is replace one home run hitter for another.

No there is no comparison. Soto is a 400 OBP hitter

No doubt that he's a better player than Alonso, but not by too much. Not
say as big a gap in talent as Soto is over Sterling Marte. If it's Marte
he's replacing, that's a huge jump in talent. If it's Alonso he's
replacing, the team hasn't gained all that much. Just saying....

[Popping Mad]

Post by ernie*
but not by too much.

by 5 WAR?

[tmp6986]

Post by ernie*

Post by hassMR

Post by Popping Mad

Post by Popping Mad

Post by ernie*
I hope I'm wrong but I see Soto signing with another team other than the
Mets,

I don't know where he will sign but at his age I would make the
strongest possible bid for him.

Mets Among Roughly 11 Teams To Reach Out To Soto
By Anthony Franco | October 31, 2024 at 10:31pm CDT
Day One of the offseason means the Juan Soto pursuits are underway.
Until Monday, only the Yankees are allowed to discuss salary figures.
However, other teams can touch base with his camp to broadly express
interest and pitch their organizations now that the World Series is
finished.
The top free agent has gotten no shortage of attention. Jon Heyman of
the New York Post writes that 11 teams were in contact with Soto’s camp
by Thursday morning. The Post’s Mike Puma relays that the Mets — widely
perceived as the top challenger to the incumbent Yankees — were among them.
Soto getting attention from more than a third of the league isn’t
surprising. There isn’t a single front office that wouldn’t love to add
him. The number of legitimately plausible suitors is much smaller.
Soto’s contract demands figure to be prohibitive for all but a handful
of teams, though Heyman writes that two unidentified small-market
franchises were among the initial eleven. Still, it’s hard to envision
Soto landing with a team that isn’t a traditional behemoth.
To that end, Heyman floats the possibility of Soto’s camp looking to top
$700MM without any deferred money. While Shohei Ohtani hit that mark
before adjusting for the deferrals, the deal’s net present value was
well south of $500MM. MLB calculates the Ohtani deal just shy of $461MM
for luxury tax purposes, while the Players Association puts it around
$438MM. Either number still represents an all-time record. The Ohtani
contract is the only one in MLB history to top $400MM.
There’s not much doubt that Soto is going to beat both versions of the
NPV of the Ohtani deal. Doing so on a contract with a present value of
$700MM is a massive ask. It’d require breaking the guarantee record by
upwards of $240MM. Getting there would require at least $50MM annually
over a 14-year term. Ohtani’s deferral-adjusted $46.06MM average annual
value is the only AAV north of $44MM.
No free agent has signed for 14 years. Fernando Tatis Jr. is the only
player to sign a 14-year contract, though his $340MM deal was an
extension signed before his age-22 season. Bryce Harper got to 13 years
as a free agent going into his age-26 season, as Soto is now. Harper
took a relatively diminished $25.38MM annual salary, and while Soto is
certainly going to beat that, shattering the AAV record and signing the
longest free agent contract of all time would be an ambitious ask.
Of course, Soto is going to start free agency with extremely high
expectations. The process seems likely to carry well into the offseason,
perhaps beyond December’s Winter Meetings. Every high-payroll franchise
figures to be linked to Soto in some capacity. The general expectation
is that there’ll be a huge bidding war between Yankees owner Hal
Steinbrenner and Mets owner Steve Cohen, in particular. Mets president
of baseball operations David Stearns has already stated that the
organization has the payroll flexibility to consider a run at “pretty
much the entirety of the player universe.”
Puma notes that while the Mets may shy away from signing players who
require draft compensation, they’re unsurprisingly willing to make an
exception in Soto’s case. He’ll decline a qualifying offer, so the Mets
would forfeit their second- and fifth-highest draft choices and $1MM in
international bonus pool space to sign him.
That’s a non-issue for a player of Soto’s caliber. If the Mets are
reluctant to surrender draft compensation, that could be a factor for
their other free agent pursuits. They’ll be heavily involved on free
agent pitchers. Corbin Burnes and Max Fried will get QOs, but Blake
Snell and Jack Flaherty are ineligible. Borderline QO candidates include
Michael Wacha, Nick Martinez and Nick Pivetta. As with Soto, they could
consider Burnes and Fried to be exceptional free agents for whom they’re
willing to take a hit to their farm system. That’ll be a subplot in what
should be a fascinating offseason in the Big Apple.

Welp, we got him!

Glad I was wrong about Soto but if the Mets don't resign Alonso, all
they've done is replace one home run hitter for another.

Glad I was wrong too...

Man, that's a scary big contract, but at least they got a star player at
a younger age (26 for next season) than many big time free agents are.

It seems to me that whether Pete comes back or not will be pretty much
up to him. I don't see any way that the Mets won't offer him a
competitive contract. It won't be (and shouldn't be) anywhere near what
Soto got, but will at least be in line with what other teams are likely
to offer.